Analyzing playoff brackets

Posted

Remember all the jubilation over Byron’s hard-fought 29-28 win over Dixon two weeks ago. Strangely, Byron would have been better off losing.

Sure, it would meant sacrificing the conference title, but put the Tigers is a much better position in the 3A playoff bracket. A loss to Dixon would have dropped them to the No. 2 seed instead of No. 1.

As it is, No. 2 seed Wilmington has a much easier pairing than does No. 1 Byron. The main reason is that private school powerhouse Lombard Montini is not in their eight-team quadrant.

Byron gets Montini in round two. Not only that, but on the road again.

Thus, it’s very likely that the 3A title game will be contested in Lombard three rounds before the actual championship. That’s how overly dominant both squads are and how unjust it is that they are meeting so soon in the post season.

We all know how good Byron is. How does Montini stack up?

Consider this: its only losses were to 8A Chicago Marist (8-1) and 7A Oak Park Fenwick (7-2). In each game, the Broncos kept it close.

In week nine, they romped over one of the favorites in 4A St. Laurence, 28-3. They also have wins over a pair of 5A qualifiers.

In analyzing the 4A bracket, Byron made have been better off petitioning to move up a class for 2024. There is no one in that group comparable to Montini.

However, as we’ve said before, the Tigers have a reputation as giant killers, with wins over Reed Custer and IC in 2021 and Montini last year. Byron was an underdog each time and found a way to win.

They will go in as underdogs again, but if anyone in 3A can give the Broncos a game, it is Byron.

How did the rest of the conference shake out in playoff pairings?

Interestingly, Genoa-Kingston, Oregon and Stillman Valley, all 5-4, saw their fates impacted by the Rockford Christian forfeit. SV took the forfeit and did not get any extra playoff points. G-K played Chicago Leo, who only one game (hence one extra playoff point). Oregon got two points by adding Athens (2-7).

As No. 13 seed, Oregon gets what appears to be a fun game with Princeton. But, I also thought the same thing when the Hawks got Du-Pec last year.

One positive already is that Oregon opted for a Friday night contest, instead of Saturday afternoon, like last year’s stagnant atmosphere at Du-Pec. Look for the Hawks to perform much better under the lights.

Whoever wins between Oregon and Princeton looks to have a decent road to quarterfinals with a Chicago public league team in round two. CPL teams have been notoriously bad in the playoffs.

No. 14 G-K also got a decent draw with a trip to Du-Pec. At No. 15, Stillman got the worst of it with 9-0 Wilmington.

Both SV and Wilmington have long and storied playoff histories. The Wildcats also have one of the best pregame shows in the state with its motorcycles and fireworks.

In 1A, Lena-Winslow (9-0) goes in looking for its fifth straight title game appearance. Can either Rockford Lutheran or Sterling Newman give opposition to the Panthers?

We’ll find out more about Lutheran in round one when they travel to No. 1 seed Leroy. The team to beat in 1A remains Bellevile Althoff, who beat a 6A playoff squad in Kaneland to end the regular season.

Rochelle had high hopes to get in that weak 4A north bracket, but ended up in 5A, where danger exists around every corner. What hurt Rochelle were smaller schools with 4-4 records beating teams with better record (such as GK over Lutheran). Every time that happened, it bumped Rochelle up a notch, making 5A inevitable.

In eight-man ball, Polo takes the overall No. 2 seed, but remains ranked as No. 1. There is a difference. Seedings are based on an established W/L formula, whereas as rankings are based upon a team’s prowess.

There are flaws in both, but the IHSA and eight-man seedings take the human element out of it.

Compared to last year when Amboy rolled over everyone in the eight-man playoffs, this year is more wide open. Can the Marcos bring out the magic again and make an appearance at Monmouth?

It is always exciting come playoff time in Polo. Never underestimate the quality of play in eight-man compared to 11-man. Hitting is hitting, no matter how many players are on the field.

This column has always been a proponent of discipline. The Chicago Bears’ last-second loss was evidence of the importance of this with a defensive back taunting the Washington fans instead of concentrating on the final play. The same player earlier was penalized 15 yards for sticking his finger in an opponent’s facemask.

What it tells me is that the Bears coaching staff has allowed a culture of ego and cockiness to invade the team. The end result of being overly tolerant led to that debacle of a loss. Be it high school, college or pro, young athletes don’t need to be coddled and enabled. They need to be held accountable and discipline is the only way to instill this.

Andy Colbert is a longtime Ogle County resident with years of experience covering sports and more for multiple area publications,