OGLE COUNTY — After a dry fall, Ogle County farmers have seen lower-than-expected moisture over the winter months so far, Ogle County Farm Bureau Manager Ron Kern said Feb. 26.
Kern said farmers are currently finalizing input costs for the year and preparing planters to get crops into the ground likely in early April or late March depending on the weather. Fertilizer application will take place before that.
“We’re dry headed into spring and we could probably use some moisture in the next month to recharge the soil,” Kern said. “We’re not critically dry, but we are dry. It doesn't sound like it in April, but when we get to July, that will make a difference.”
Ogle County farmers are currently awaiting a new federal Farm Bill, which Congress passes every five years to set comprehensive agricultural programs and policies. The current Farm Bill, passed in 2018, has been extended for a year twice, most recently in December. The federal Farm Bill allocates funding for crop insurance, disaster assistance and conservation programs for farmers.
Kern said that in a new Farm Bill, farmers would like to see adjustments on payment price points, particularly with current commodity prices being lower than desired. They would also like to see adjustments to the crop insurance program, along with conservation initiatives that include grant money, and research dollars put towards developing domestic uses for commodities so the U.S. is less dependent on the export market.
“The farm bill affects every farmer in one way or another,” Kern said. “The bottom line is, we really do need to get in there and start getting our hands dirty and working on getting bipartisan agreement on a new farm bill that's more reflective of modern agriculture and some of these price points. The thing is, you have a new senate and a new house ag committee and chairman. There’s some getting used to each other there. And with the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) it’s hard to really say what kind of a farm bill package we’ll be looking at here. I do think there’s motivation on the part of congressmen and U.S. senators to get something done before the end of the year. I just don’t know when we’ll see results.”
President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs could also have an impact on area farmers when and if they come to fruition. Kern said tariffs almost always include farm commodities and the looming potential economic impacts of the tariffs have Ogle County farmers feeling uncertainty.
During President Trump’s first term, tariffs were also seen which resulted in negative financial impacts to farmers. The Trump administration then allocated payments to help mitigate and offset those impacts.
“I don’t know if this time around we’ll see those types of payments or mitigation,” Kern said. “I have no idea. But I do know this, if you start including agricultural commodities in these tariffs, this isn’t the 1950s anymore. South America is a huge competitor. If China can't source soybeans for the right price from the U.S., they'll get them from somewhere else. And they'll source them from South America. Once you start playing that game and once you start being known across the world as an unreliable supplier, regaining markets that you lost becomes a no-win proposition. It’s a very delicate issue right now.”
Kern said that potential economic impacts could also be seen on prices of inputs and equipment that farmers use. The industry has seen John Deere lay off employees due to farmers not placing orders for new equipment, Kern said. With higher input prices looming and the outlook for commodity prices being lower, farmers will be looking to cut back on expenses such as fertilizer and fuel.
“These farmers are going to have to have a really sharp pencil this year,” Kern said. “When farmers sit down and they're penciling out their cash rent and inputs, and they're penciling out what they believe their yield is going to be, I'm sure they're probably penciling out a lower return for commodity prices. At least I hope they are. Because I don’t foresee there being a lot of glee in the farm sector next year when we're all said and done.”
Kern said current lower fuel prices are a positive for farmers, and they worked to lock in prices on anything they could for the year before potential changes could be seen. Farmers are always at the mercy of mother nature, but they now face uncertainty with the Farm Bill and other changes at the federal level.
“There's people who like to go to Las Vegas and gamble,” Kern said. “Our farmers do it every day.”
Over the next few weeks, Kern said he hopes Ogle County farmers can pick up some moisture in fields, and then have warm and dry enough conditions to start planting and get it wrapped up by late April or early May.
“Hopefully from there, we'll have a relatively normal growing season,” Kern said. And from there, I hope we can pull out the bushels we're anticipating. Then it's a matter of whether or not we have a place to sell them.”
